Thursday Blog: Big model changes over the next 3 weeks. -Doug

Big model changes over the next 3 weeks. -Doug

Hope your Christmas week is going well so far and your shopping is done. If you haven’t started or haven’t started you better go for it, just saying. The weather has been fantastic. Check it out.

It’s thinking back to December. Red days are above average days. November was the same except that the first two weeks of the month were below normal. Why? Well we had a very active model, 8 severe weather events dating back to early October. One of the main reasons is the AO (arctic oscillation). If the AO is positive, it keeps all arctic air north. If it turns negative, we are likely to have cold arctic air. It was positive for most of November and the first half of December, but is now negative. It doesn’t mean we’ll have arctic air, it means the odds are increasing! Last year was a 46 day cycle. Christmas 2020, AO positive, no snow. February 14th when the cycle came back, well it turned negative and you remember last February lol. So the arctic air is rising and we have PLANS for snow, NOT SNOW, BUT PLANS FOR SNOW, starting at the end of next week before New Years. Alright, let’s take a look at what will happen this week. next. I want to say that if we don’t get decent snow by January 15th (or if it at least looks white) the chances of a snowy winter drop dramatically. We will be returning to the hottest part of the boss and the colder part will not arrive again until the end of February. However, I think the end of February is our best chance. (3rd person Doug) Doug is getting frustrated! I love snow and it’s getting harder and harder to get good snow here. But there is a chance! Watch Thursday.


Not too shabby, windy but not bad. Even better on Christmas Eve.

Christmas Eve

Close to records, which is crazy. We have a system that I’m watching that will slide north of us Friday night and Saturday. But we have to stay dry. Let’s go to Sunday.


This system will give us a chance for thunderstorms late Sunday, believe it or not. But the pattern resumes, another Tuesday, Thursday, next Saturday. Let’s look at Tuesday.


Another chance for thunderstorms. I wouldn’t be surprised if this system digs further south like the last cycle, so let’s see if we can get some cooler air for the systems at the end of next week.

Long range below.


From Thursday to next Saturday: Cool with chances of rain Thursday and Saturday, maybe snow.

January 2-8: Mainly a cold week with chances of rain or snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.

January 9-15: Moderate start with chances of rain or snow Monday and Tuesday. Becoming much colder for the rest of the week.

January 16-22: Mostly cold for this week. Chance of light rain on Monday and Friday.

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